机器人可以缓解老龄化带来的中国劳动力短缺问题吗

本文基于机器人替代能力的视角,分别从理论和实证角度探讨机器人能否缓解中国人口老龄化带来的劳动力短缺问题.本文提出衡量机器人替代能力的估计方法,使用2000-2015年58个国家的相关数据,将机器人对劳动力的替代能力进行了估计.估计结果表明,目前一台机器人平均每年大约可以替代60000～83000个小时的劳动工作量,工具变量模型和稳健性检验结果也进一步证明了这一结论.最后,通过使用技术创新扩散模型对机器人密度进行预测,结合本文估计出的机器人替代能力,解答了未来中国的机器人能在多大程度上缓解劳动力供给不足压力的问题.实证结果表明,机器人能够弥补的劳动力工作可以部分抵消由人口老龄化带来的劳动力短缺问题,这对更全面地理解中国人口老龄化问题及相关政策调整有十分重要的意义.     

Does an Audit Judgment Rule Increase or Decrease Auditors' Use of Innovative Audit Procedures?

The current audit environment encourages auditors to conduct defensive auditing procedures in lieu of using new, innovative, and potentially more effective audit procedures, due to concerns these procedures may be second-guessed in litigation or by audit inspectors such as the PCAOB. As a result, auditors may prefer traditional “generally accepted” procedures over innovative procedures that are potentially more effective. We test recent proposals that an Audit Judgment Rule (AJR) encourages the use of innovative, and potentially more effective, audit procedures analogous to the similar Business Judgment Rule that affords legal protections to corporate directors. Under an AJR, litigators or audit inspectors could not second-guess auditor judgments, even if they perceive that alternate judgments would have ordinarily been reached, provided the auditor's judgment was made in good faith and in a rigorous manner. However, the AJR's requirements that auditors must defend the rigor of their innovative judgments could potentially backfire and lead auditors to select more traditional procedures. Under the framework of goal activation theory, we conduct an experiment with audit managers and seniors and find that an AJR makes auditors less likely to select innovative audit procedures, particularly when audit risk is high. They do so despite believing the innovative procedures to be more effective than the traditional procedures. Findings from a supplementary experiment with experienced auditors further suggest that national office affirmation of the reasonableness of the procedures does not help overcome this effect. Overall, our findings suggest that an AJR may have the unintended consequence of further increasing auditors' focus on more traditional, and potentially less effective, audit procedures.     

Can commodity futures risk factors predict economic growth?

This paper examines whether commodity futures risk factors can predict future economic growth. We test risk factors capturing various spot or term premia and find that only three factors capturing term premia on the basis-momentum, basis, and change in slope are robust predictors for future economic growth, especially for long horizons. Our findings highlight the importance of the term premia, rather than the spot premia on which the literature has mainly focused. Moreover, we find that possible explanations for predictability of commodity factors—the intertemporal asset pricing model and information diffusion explanation—are all inconsistent with our empirical results.     

金融资源配置、技术进步与经济高质量发展

随着我国发展阶段及内外部条件的变化,科技创新已成为新时代引领我国经济高质量发展的核心驱动力。本文以金融驱动技术进步的视角,构建内生增长DSGE模型,分析金融资源配置、技术进步和经济增长之间的关系。研究佐证了我国技术创新的逆周期性,并发现金融资源在企业生产性投资与创新投资之间的分配,可以通过改变生产要素投入规模和技术进步率两种途径影响经济增长,且这两种影响之间存在“跷跷板”关系,但后者更具主导性。在此基础上,诠释了金融、技术与经济的动态传导机制:经济扩张期,企业生产规模扩张,金融资源对生产性投资的支持增加,对创新的投入相对减少,技术进步率放缓;经济收缩期,企业缩减生产规模,金融资源对生产性投资的支持减少,对创新的投入相对增加,技术进步率提升。本研究的政策启示为,面对当前发展新矛盾、新挑战,应把握发展新格局、新机遇,进一步深化金融改革,优化金融资源配置机制,鼓励创新投资,充分发挥股权市场对企业研发创新的支持作用,并辅以稳健适度的宏观调控政策,为企业创新提供良性的宏观环境,激活企业创新需求,促进技术进步,推动经济高质量发展。     

城市核心区旧城改造的典型困境与突破思路

在城市的发展史中,城市更新是永恒的命题。城市核心区旧城改造对土地集约利用、重塑城市增长极、提升城市形象、重塑城市特色意义重大。但旧城改造面临利益格局复杂、协调成本高、居民普遍贫困、优势区位推高开发成本、原迁还模式未能显著改善居民生存状态等一系列问题。因此,今后城市核心区旧城改造应遵循以下思路：保障居民生存条件优化,保障性住房政策可以加入到旧城改造项目;政企民多方合作、互利共赢;审慎选择注重长远利益的开发主体;保障区域文脉的延续与空间的协调等。     

The Incorporation of Consumer Experience into the Branding Process: An Investigation of Name‐Brand Hotels

Given the growing number of hotel brands, improving consumer experience has become an increasingly important area of interest to industry practitioners. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between hotel guests' brand experience, knowledge and loyalty to name‐brand hotels. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling with the incorporation of a second‐order factor analysis were employed to achieve the research goals. The findings indicate that brand experience was represented as a holistic concept with sensory, affective, behavioral and intellectual aspects. While brand experience influences brand loyalty, its impact is partially mediated by brand knowledge. This is a pioneer study that combines consumer experience with branding in the hospitality industry and offers practical suggestions to facilitate hotel managers in their development of effective branding strategies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论我国物流业发展所面临的机遇与挑战

长期以来,我国一直是重生产、轻流通,对物流业的发展缺乏足够的重视,致使物流业的发展严重滞后于社会经济的发展。目前,物流发展与管理对促进社会经济的发展和提高经济效益的重要性已日益被各级政府和企业所意识到。现代信息技术和物流技术的进步也为我国推行现代物流业的发展和物流的科学管理准备了充分的条件。